Risks that it faces the formation pluvisilva of mountain of the Agroforestry Enterprise Baracoa before the increase de temperature
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Abstract
Rising global temperatures pose a serious threat to mountain ecosystems, particularly endemic vegetation. This study analyzed future climate projections and their impact on biodiversity in the mountain rainforest of Empresa Agroforestal (EAF) Baracoa, Cuba, using the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. Average temperature data (1981–2000) were evaluated, and changes were projected for the periods 2050 and 2075, considering an altitudinal gradient of -0.5°C per 100 m. The results showed a thermal increase from 0.69 to 5.91°C, which would cause an altitudinal shift from 104 to 2000 m, reducing available habitat and increasing the risk of local extinction, especially for endemic species such as Magnolia cubensis and Cnidoscolus regina. Four vulnerability groups were identified, with species exclusive to Baracoa being the most threatened. Ex situ conservation, continuous monitoring, and international collaboration to preserve genetic resources were proposed as adaptation strategies. It was concluded that accelerated warming could lead to the disappearance of species with limited migration capacity, requiring urgent action for their protection.
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